We Never Promised You A Rose Garden

The Opportunity for Victory in Iraq

It seems that this week has exposed some giant cracks in the ideology of the American defeatist camp.

1)  All of the sudden President Admyneedablowjob is in trouble at home, while sitting at the poker table and betting the kitchen sink with a fist full of shite.

2)  The Iraqi situation, while still fraught with violence and chaos, is showing increasingly resilience from the moderates backed, guided and supported by the most influential Shi'ite religious leader in Iraq.

What does this mean?  Obviously, it doesn't mean that I'm jumping up and down like Nevile Chamberlain on crystal meth screaming VICTORY and PEACE IN OUR TIME!

The bottom line is that the situation in Iraq is at the final cross-roads. Victory is still attainable, military operations can have a positive short term effect (24-36 months) and diplomatic/political/military operational objectives must be attacked in a synergistic / mutually supporting environment.

This is the last chance to get it right. I’ll leave the political/diplomacy up to the duty experts, but from a military perspective I think we need to prosecute 5 operational objectives in three phases:

Phase I - Set Conditions for the Physical Security of Iraq

1) Isolate Iran by fomenting the internal strife. If Iran wants to fight a proxy war against the US in Iraq, let’s turn the table and fight a proxy war against them in their own country. Start with pushing the Iraqi Kurds toward unification with their brothers in NW Iraq. Who knows, maybe the Turkmen and Azerbaijanis will jump on the band wagon.  Simultaneous diplomacy with Syria must be a priority.

End state – Iran’s government becomes internally focused, unable to effectively influence its neighbors.

2) Continue operations in An Bar.

End state – Insurgents and Foreign Fighters unable to effectively prosecute an organized insurgency inside An Bar province.

3) Surge forces (30-40k all in Baghdad). Start a true clear, hold, rebuild operation. Start from the green zone and push salients out into the city. Clear, hold and rebuild in each (like spokes of a wagon wheel). Then move laterally to close the spaces between the spokes (again, clear, hold, rebuild). Repeat. Essentially you are increasing the size of the Green Zone by an order of magnitude. Here's the key - this effort must include the Iraqi forces. The Iraqis should hold the interior of each salient, Coalition forces should hold the perimeter and both Iraqis and Americans (and the Brits if they are able) should rebuild together. Aside from increasing the physical security situation, this would accomplish a myriad of positives for the Iraqi people, the government and further the the proficiency of the Iraqi security forces.

End state – Baghdad secure, Mahdi army defeated, and Sadr city cordoned by US and Iraqi forces poised to launch follow-on operations (in Sadr city).

Phase II - Transition Main Effort to Iraqi Forces

4) Once Baghdad is secure and An Bar is under control, the main effort of US Forces becomes the cordon of the country of Iraq. We cut off all rat lines. We secure Iraq’s boarders with Iran and Syria, aggressively patrol An Bar and Ninawa and Diyala, and allow the Iraqi Security forces to clear, hold and rebuild the interior of Iraq (with limited US support).

End state – Insurgency/Foreign fighters unable to rely on ratlines for resupply and Iraqi army able to conduct operations against the remnants of the insurgency without being impeded by foreign influx of forces and supplies.

Phase III

5) Redeployment.

End state – A phased redeployment of the majority of US combat divisions CONUS.

The Iraq Surrender Group, Iran-Contra and the Path to Victory

In order to cause the enemy to come of their own volition, extend some profit. In order to prevent the enemy from coming forth, show them the potential for harm. Sun Tzu - The Art of War

The Democrat vs Republican Group Think (ISG debate) is really getting annoying.  Here my bottom line - the Iraq Surrender Group report is only a piece of the puzzle.  We need an aggressive strategy to win back the initiative in Iraq, Internationally and Domestically.  Two specific issues come to mind when analyzing the ISG report vis-a-vis grand strategy:

1)  I don’t care how many military guys were consulted on the report; you put a bunch of old school cold war diplomats in a room together and you will end up with a DIPLOMATIC solution.  Not that diplomacy is bad; but its only one tool in the tool box.  You can pound a nail with a caulking gun, but all you get is a big fucking mess. So now lets here what the CJCS working group comes up with.  Bet ya $10 billion it’s more objective and comprehensive that the ISG.

2)  I was thinking about Iran–Contra the other day and stumbled upon a wonderful logic bomb: are the liberals the same ya-hoos who freaked out over Ronnie’s back door deals with Iran to get our hostages back and marginalize the radical components of the Iranian regime?  What the fuck has changed in the last 20 years?  When they invaded our Embassy and kidnapped Americans they wanted to impeach the President for negotiating with terrorists – now Iran is fighting a proxy war against us in Iraq and they want to deal with them?  Whiskey, tango, foxtrot over.

Wanna hear my strategy for victory in Iraq? It’s all about seizing the initiative.

A) Increase troops by 10-20k and send them all to Baghdad. Start a real clear, hold, rebuild mission from the Green Zone by pushing salients into Baghdad proper, clear them, and hold (like a wagon wheel).  Establish a perimeter then clear, hold and rebuild the interior of the wagon wheel until you have a bigger Green Zone.  Eventually, you secure all of Baghdad.  Then you look at the rest of the country.  Point is – by then; you should have an Iraqi Army and Police force ready for the job.  And you tell em – once Baghdad is secure they’re up; we will transition US forces to isolating the interior of Iraq by pushing to the boarders with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Syria and Iran. Turkey will take care of its own boarder.

B)  Fight a proxy war against the Iranian regime utilizing the Kurds.  Once the Kurds start fighting the Iranians in Iran (for unification) chances are the Azerbaijanis and Turkmeni will jump on the bandwagon.  If they don’t we can always give them a push.  If Turkey doesn’t like it – tell those fuckers to get the Iranians to stop funding and supplying the insurgency in Iraq.

3)  Get serious about the relationship between domestic politics and Victory in Iraq.  Stop pussy footing around with the debate.  Either you want us to win or you don’t.   Where is the propaganda machine of WWII?  We need to get this country on a war footing.  Gen Pace must be involved.  We are loosing the information warfare piece here at home.  The only way to get it back is to go on the offensive.

Anyway, I’m just a dumb grunt living in Academia.  What do I know?

Semper Fidelis

Victory in Iraq is Dependant on a Unified America

Our failures in Iraq are owned by the entire government, congress, the military and the American people – it’s not just about the commander-in-chief. Its about a congress (both democrat and republican) who has controlled the purse strings and shortchanged the warrior since Vietnam, its about a SecDef that didn’t understand how the blood and the mud fit into operational art, its about the generals who were more concerned with their pensions than throwing their stars on the President’s desk in protest of a flawed planning process, and its about a country who’s people lament our failure while remaining completely ignorant about warfare, unwavering in their commitment to armchair quarterback our nation toward ultimate defeat.

Two timeless lessons of Vietnam are being ignored:

1) Wining the political struggle in Washington doesn’t win wars and

2) Undermining the national will is the strategic objective of our enemy; it’s the only way they can defeat the US military on the battlefield.

The Congress doesn't have a clue how to fight a war. The Administration doesn't have a clue how to fight an insurgency. The SecDef was looking for a "Revolution in Military Affairs" as his legacy. The American people don't understand why we need to fight. The only people that should be in charge of making decisions on how to win in Iraq are the people in the Military. Not some skinny fucker who was a Lieutenant JG, looking at fuck books while on his swift boat back in the NAM. Not some “hero” that flew a Navy Jet for a while got shot down and spent 7 years as a POW. Neither of them knows jack shit about strategy or operational art. It should be the guys who really make the decisions. They guys who have gone to school, practiced, rehearsed the plays and know when and how to kill effectively and efficiently.

I heard a great commentary on NPR a couple weeks ago from an Army Ranger (enlisted) that was now at Yale. He went off about how his classmates continuously bemoan the administration and history for sending the poor kids to war while the rich kids get away with it. His response - the poor kids fight because the rich kids refuse to. Rich and republican are not synonymous and Democrats need to stop shoveling the BS.

When people hop up and down and say "Bush won't even give those guys body armor and the stuff to fight with" I want ot punch them in the mouth. For anyone in congress to imply such bullshit is a straight up lie. They know exactly why those guys don't have their shit - it's because congress didn't buy it for them. The Republican Party doesn't spend the money, the entire congress does. The "toys" that we have today were all bought 10-12 years ago. One of the most fucked up things about our military technology procurement process is that we are forced to guess what we will need 10-15 years in the future and how those technologies will emerge as legacy budget items. Then we go to congress, ask them to fund it they approve it and the President signs it into law.

Add the politics to the pot and stir. What you get is barbequed pork. And it ain't blue or red - it's just brown and tastes like shit.

Giving a Senator or LCPL Binotz any credibility when it comes to military strategy and operational art is like putting the valedictorian of a high school in charge of a multinational corporation. He might be smart, dedicated and a great kid, but there is no fucking way he's going to be able to run a company in the real world tomorrow.

I just get pissed at the political vodo. Democrats need to stop trying to dismantle our national will in hopes of winning in “oh-ate.” Its making a tough fight in Iraq even harder.

The bottom line according to Capt Crunch (me) - if we all supported this war, we would have won it two years ago. Sure Rummy was an idiot. Sure the Generals should have stood up for a better plan. Sure we should have had more troops on the ground. Sure we should not have hamstrung the intelligence community after the fall of the Soviet Union. Sure, hindsight is 20/20.

And guess what, we had the same "debacle" in 1942 in North Africa. That's why FDR had a strangle hold on information coming out of the theater. That's why propaganda was so important. He knew if the American people found out that 7000 Americans died as a result of ineptitude, incompetence and inadequate training, he and Ike would loose their jobs. He also knew that his military wasn't stupid; they just didn't have the first idea how to fight the Germans and the revolutionary tactics of maneuver warfare. He knew they needed time to learn and that the knowledge would be paid for with the blood of American sons and fathers. He knew that every single death would save countless more on the European continent because we would learn how to fight the Germans and win; or the war would be over as we were defeated.

It doesn't matter what any of those turncoat motherfuckers who backed the war on the floor of the senate and baulk at our policy say now. They don't have a plan now, they didn't have any brilliant insight 4 years ago and they are just as responsible for the situation as the President, SecDef and the Generals.

Here's the thing - we would have lost every single war in our nation's history if we didn't fight to win. Fighting to win means supporting each other as a nation, not trying to derail the policies of a sitting President because you feel like you got screwed in 2000. Fighting to win means doing everything possible to make sure our enemies don't win, not leaking classified memos that derail the relationship between two nations in peril. Fighting to win means uniting the American people to crush those murdering religious fanatics that oppose us on the Arab street. Fighting to win means taking the gloves off and fighting a war, not pussy footing around the fragile sensibilities of the squeamish.

Fuck those guys. Their bullshit is getting my friends killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And the last point I will make is this – if our leaders in congress and the people of this country didn’t understand that this war would last for decades they don’t understand history or warfare. Even after receiving the unconditional surrender of the Axis powers in 1945, our troops remain in Japan and Germany - 61 years later.

We can win this thing if the American people and congress let us do our jobs and quit all the political posturing bullshit and start being Americans first.

Semper Fidelis.